It’s that time of year. Summer nights are getting shorter, football season is gearing up, the kids are mercifully going back to school—and a slew of pumpkin spice drinks and products are headed for store shelves and local coffee chains.
But if recent data is any indication, the pumpkin spice trend may finally be cooling down.
Food & Wine leaked the Starbucks fall menu, which is expected to drop later this month. The menu includes the Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew, Iced Pumpkin Cream Chai and the classic Pumpkin Spice Latte.
You might think there are hundreds, or even thousands, of pumpkin spice products. And you’re not wrong. From 2017 to 2022, the food industry saw retail sales of pumpkin spice products increase by a staggering 47%. That’s a lot of lattes.
While the trend has been steadily rising for years, in 2023, Datassential reported that major chains released only 204 pumpkin-flavored items, down 1% from past years.
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What the data show
So, has the pumpkin spice bubble finally burst? We may not know for several weeks until new data is in.
We asked KTLA consumer expert David Lazarus, who is still bullish.
“Fear not, pumpkin spice aficionados, there will be no shortage of your favorite fix this holiday season,” Lazarus said. “While the number of new items may be down a smidge from recent years, all the usual suspects—Starbucks, Dunkin’, 7-Eleven—are rolling out pumpkin-spiced confections in the coming weeks.”
And the numbers show Lazarus may be right.
While fall pumpkin drinks peaked in 2022 and dropped slightly in 2023, more chains are shifting releases earlier, according to Datassential’s Launches & Ratings platform, “as top chains ramped up pumpkin offerings ahead of fall, with pumpkin ice cream, pumpkin donuts, pumpkin specialty coffee drinks, and more.”
Datassential tells KTLA that pumpkin as a flavor doesn’t seem to be going anywhere as fall approaches, “matching consumers’ early excitement for fall and fall holidays.”
Lazarus agrees.
“Perhaps the more intriguing question is: If pumpkin spice is so darn popular, why isn’t it available year-round? But, like the availability of McRib sandwiches, this is just one of the mysteries of the retail world,” he said.