11% Chance of Another Huge Earthquake in SoCal, Scientists Say
Los Angeles Times and Lauren Lyster
The odds that Southern California will experience another earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater in the next week are now nearly 11%, according to preliminary estimates from seismologists.
Jenner Kim of Trona examines his storage building, which was badly damaged by the Fourth of July quake in 2019. (Credit: Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times)
And the chances that a quake will surpass the 7.1 temblor that struck near Ridgecrest on Friday night are roughly 8% to 9%, said Caltech seismologist Lucy Jones.
“There’s about a 1 in 10 chance that we could have another 7 in this sequence,” she said.
More likely is that the Owens Valley will experience another temblor of magnitude 6 or greater. The odds of that are slightly greater than 50-50, Jones said. And more quakes of magnitude 5 or greater are a near certainty.
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