College football should be wide open in 2025.
With Week Zero behind us and the sport set to get into full swing this week, a look at the current Heisman odds confirms just how little we know entering the season.
Arch Manning, a player with 95 career pass attempts under his belt, is locked in as the favorite to win college football's biggest honor at +700. Among the other favorites to raise the trophy in New York this December: LSU's Garrett Nussmeier (+900), Clemson's Cade Klubnik (+900), Penn State's Drew Allar (+1800), South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers (+1800) and Florida's DJ Lagway (+2000), all players who've had great moments and, in some cases, strong seasons, but none that jump off the page as obvious Heisman winners at this point in their careers.
It wouldn't be a major surprise to see a player from down the odds list make a run at the trophy this year. We've identified 10 dark horses, all with odds at +2000 or worse coming into the season per FanDuel, who could crash the Heisman Trust's party this winter.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin, +2000
If you are the starting quarterback at Ohio State, odds are you will be in the mix to win the Heisman at some point during your tenure. In fact, since Urban Meyer took over the program ahead of the 2012 season, all but two full-time starters at quarterback finished in the top 10 of Heisman voting at least once in their careers. The exceptions came in the last two seasons: Kyle McCord in 2023 (who went on to finish 10th after transferring to Syracuse last season) and Will Howard, who led the team to a national championship.
A true sophomore, Julian Sayin may not find himself in the Heisman mix this year, but history says that he can't be written off, even with just 12 career pass attempts to his name. He'll certainly have the weapons to put up big numbers in 2025, with Jeremiah Smith—perhaps college football's best player and a Heisman candidate himself with +1200 odds heading into the season—and Carnell Tate leading one of the sport's best receiving corps.
Oregon QB Dante Moore, +2500
Dante Moore and Sayin are among the largely unproven quarterbacks that litter the Heisman odds lists entering the season, along with Manning and Alabama's Ty Simpson. Moore's college football journey did not begin in Eugene, however, as he started five games for UCLA in 2023, appearing in nine games for the Bruins. Moore flashed his five-star potential at times in Chip Kelly's offense, but had a rocky first season in which he completed less than 54% of his throws for 1,610 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He opted to transfer to Oregon, sitting behind Dillon Gabriel (last season's third-place Heisman finisher) before taking over as the Ducks' QB1 for '25.
Quarterbacks have thrived under coach Dan Lanning since he took over the program ahead of the 2022 season. Quarterbacks Bo Nix and Gabriel have posted back-to-back third-place finishes in the Heisman race, and Moore has a full year under his belt in offensive coordinator Will Stein's system.
Oklahoma QB John Mateer, +2500
The 2024 season could have been one to forget for Washington State, as the Cougars played their first year after being abandoned by their Pac-12 bretheren, who dispersed for the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. Instead, John Mateer stepped in for Cam Ward, who had transferred to Miami, and emerged as one of college football's most exciting quarterbacks in his first year as starter. Now, he will attempt to walk a similar path to Ward, transferring to a college football power in Oklahoma along with Ben Arbuckle, his offensive coordinator at Wazzu who now holds the same role at OU.
Dual-threat quarterbacks have a massive leg-up in the Heisman race, and Mateer profiles as the type of player who can make a real Heisman push at a big-name program. Since Cam Newton's dominant 2010 Heisman season, 12 quarterbacks have captured the award; they averaged 776 rushing yards and over 11 touchdowns, with just two (Jameis Winston in '13, Bryce Young in '21) failing to rush for at least 300 yards.
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love, +3000
At times, it feels like fait accompli that a quarterback will win the Heisman, as has overwhelmingly been the case since the turn of the century. Last year's vote proved that remarkable players at other positions can break through, however, with two-way star Travis Hunter taking home the award ahead of Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty.
He is not among the favorites to win the award, but Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love enters the season with the best odds among running backs. If the Fighting Irish find themselves in national championship contention after falling just short a year ago, and Love builds on last year's impressive season, he could have what it takes to become the first running back to win the award since Derrick Henry (2015). Love averaged a hyper-efficient 7.1 yards per touch a year ago, while receiving 206 fewer touches than Jeanty did. Notre Dame is unlikely to build the entire offense around Love, as the Broncos did with Jeanty last season, but with a young quarterback in C.J. Carr stepping into the starting lineup, Love figures to become the true focal point of Mike Denbrock's offense. Add in the swell of attention that any great Fighting Irish team receives, and Love could certainly find himself in the mix if he puts up elite numbers.
Alabama WR Ryan Williams, +3500
Jeremiah Smith has the most hype of college football's rising sophomore wide receivers, and justifiably so, but the Alabama star that graces the cover of EA Sports College Football 26 alongside him—Alabama's Ryan Williams—is a bona fide star in his own right. Williams cemented his status as a human highlight reel in his 177-yard outing in the Crimson Tide's comeback win against Georgia, and went on to post a very solid statline over the full season, despite Alabama's occasion struggles in the passing game last season.
Williams and Smith find themselves in similar situations entering '25, with both relying on unproven quarterbacks (Sayin, Alabama's Ty Simpson). If Williams plays DeVonta Smith this season and becomes the true centerpiece of a resurgent Crimson Tide offense, he will probably put up plenty of SportsCenter-worthy plays in the process—and viral highlights are necessary for a non-quarterback to win college football's most prestigious award.
Kansas State QB Avery Johnson, +6500
The only player on this list that competed in Week Zero, Kansas State's dramatic 24–21 loss to Iowa State will hurt Johnson's chances a bit, though he played well enough in the second half for the Wildcats to have a chance to win the game, and if a Heisman winner is going to stumble, he'd rather it be early in the season.
Both offenses struggled through a sloppy first half in wet conditions at Dublin, Ireland's Aviva Stadium, with Johnson scoring KSU's only first-half touchdown with a 10-yard scamper. His arm came alive in the second half and he finished 21 of 30 for 273 yards and two touchdowns, with 21 yards on the ground. Johnson, who completed under 60% of his throws in each of his first two seasons, has to improve as an accurate passer, but he's already one of the most dangerous college quarterbacks in the open field, and flashed his ability to find receivers downfield against the Cyclones.
Georgia Tech QB Haynes King, +6500
After three up-and-down seasons at Texas A&M, Haynes King broke out in 2023 after transferring to Georgia Tech, posting 3,579 total yards with 27 passing touchdowns, 10 scores on the ground and 16 interceptions. He battled through injury, in '24, but remained the engine of the Ramblin' Wreck offense through the air and on the ground. Most importantly, King reduced his interception rate from 4.4% to just 0.7% on 269 attempts in '24, and completed a career high 72.9% of his throws.
King flashed real starpower at the end of the season, putting up 413 total yards and five touchdowns in the Yellow Jackets' near-upset of rival Georgia—a game that ended 44–42 in favor of the Dawgs after eight overtimes. If King can stay healthy, offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner has designed a unique offense that should allow him to put up some massive numbers.
Kansas QB Jalon Daniels, +10000
Jalon Daniels's breakout 2022 season was key in Kansas reaching its first bowl game since 2008, but things have not gone well for the Jayhawks quarterback in the years since. He appeared in just three games in '23 due to injury, missing much of KU's run to a 9–4 season, Guaranteed Rate Bowl win and finish at No. 23 in AP and Coaches Polls. Daniels returned for 2024, but put together a very streaky season, and Kansas went as their quarterback did, losing five consecutive games after a Week 1 win over FCS Lindenwood before rebounding to win four of five, and ultimately falling to Baylor in the season finale to miss a bowl.
When he’s on his game, Daniels pushes the ball down the field with the best of them, and is a dangerous rusher with a pair of seasons with 400+ rushing yards and at least six touchdowns on the ground. He was also deeply inaccurate last year, posting his worst completion percentage (57%) since his freshman season in 2020. The good news is that Daniels played in all 12 games last year and should enter '25 in top form, unlike last year. If he can build on his impressive 2022 and abridged '23 campaigns, Daniels should be one of the most electric passers in the Big 12.
Iowa QB Mark Gronowski, +15000
Iowa was successful in elevating its offense from the dregs of college football to merely mediocre last year, after coach Kirk Ferentz replaced his son, the much derided Brian Ferentz, with Tim Lester. Now, they add one of the best quarterbacks from the FCS level to try and build on that improvement: South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski.
Gronowski went 49−6 in 55 starts with the Jackrabbits, with 10,330 career passing yards, 93 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, as well as 1,767 rushing yards and 37 touchdowns. He won the Walter Payton Award—the FCS equivalent of the Heisman Trophy—two seasons ago. If he can help Iowa take another big leap on offense, and the Hawkeyes rack up wins in the Big Ten, it would not surprise to see Gronowski receive similar attention to what Indiana's Kurtis Rourke garnered a year ago.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia, +15000
Against all odds, Diego Pavia has become one of the faces of the SEC after what was supposed to be his one-and-only year at Vanderbilt. The scrappy former New Mexico State gunslinger took college football by storm in 2024, leading the Commodores to a truly shocking 7–6 record, which featured wins over Virginia Tech, Alabama, Auburn and Georgia Tech in the Birmingham Bowl. Vandy also lost games to Georgia State, Missouri, Texas and LSU by a combined 17 points. The Dores turned a massive corner last season, and much of it can be attributed to the unshakeable confidence and braggadocio of Pavia, who went on to dominate the interviews for Netflix's documentary series SEC Football: Any Given Saturday.
Pavia went on to win another year of NCAA eligibility in court last December, and he will look to reach new heights with the extra season in 2025. He'll need to take a big leap forward statistically to really put himself in the mix, but as far as narratives go, the stage is set for Pavia to win over voters if Vanderbilt can pull off some more Saturday miracles this fall. And Pavia has already referred to himself as the 2025 Heisman winner... who are we to doubt him?
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 10 Heisman Trophy Dark Horses Who Could Take Home College Football's Top Award.