Alexander Isak once revealed that he has a secret passion for philosophy, and is fascinated specifically with stoicism.

“It is built on self-control,” he told France Football back in 2020, “and the ability to find harmony by controlling strong feelings like jealousy, anger and desire.”

The increasingly toxic transfer saga dragging him between Newcastle United and Liverpool will have supremely tested Isak’s stoic ambitions. How much self-control was deployed when he took to Instagram on Tuesday evening to declare that “the relationship can’t continue”?

There was plenty of anger in Newcastle’s swift response which refuted Isak’s claims of “broken” promises and effectively declared that their centre forward would not be joining Liverpool this summer.

As this standoff continues to bubble away ahead of a rapidly approaching deadline day, there are several scenarios for the philosophy buff to mull over.


The Most Likely Outcome of the Isak Transfer Saga

Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak hasn’t featured for Newcastle United since last season. | Visionhaus/Getty Images

The typical resolution to these standoffs is what Henry Clay would deem to be a good compromise: neither party is satisfied. The sulking player with a long-term contract will inevitably stay at a club which has become abundantly aware of how little loyalty exists in this relationship.

Isak’s refusal to ever play for Newcastle again even after the transfer window closes just simply isn’t realistic. Like any child who has thrown a tantrum and promised to run away from home, they rarely get beyond the confines of their bedroom.

Since joining AIK as a 6-year-old, playing organised football is the thing Isak has given up all else to prioritise. And now, two decades later, he’ll just give that up to twiddle his thumbs until January or even June? The prospect of a first World Cup appearance this summer only heightens the need to maintain full match fitness.

In the immediate aftermath of this public spat, Isak’s position may see untenable. But the fickle nature of football fandom works both ways. History has shown that supporters can shift from jeers to cheers at concussive speed.

Harry Kane infamously skipped Tottenham Hotspur training in the summer of 2021 in the hope of forcing a move to Manchester City. Much like Isak, the England captain had three years remaining on his contract, giving his current club all the leverage. After three weeks it became apparent that City would not meet Spurs’ demands and Kane stayed, scored 17 league goals and helped the team finish fourth.

Liverpool know how flimsy player power can be from first-hand experience. Philippe Coutinho sat out the first month of the 2017–18 season sulking over a failed transfer to Barcelona. The Brazilian would eventually move to Catalonia in January but only after directly contributing to 14 goals in 14 Premier League appearances that campaign.

Tensions will no doubt spike when Newcastle host Liverpool in a devilishly scheduled Premier League fixture on Monday night, but if Isak still remains on the club’s books by the end of play on Sep. 1, he will surely line up decked out in black and white again.


What Else Could Happen?

Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak had become a fan favourite at St James’ Park. | Stu Forster/Getty Images

There is a scenario where Isak even finds himself signing a new Newcastle contract. In an act which his representatives perhaps should have taken when he first moved to Tyneside from Real Sociedad in 2022, Isak could theoretically agree to a deal that includes a release clause.

This way, both parties would have their own interests protected: Newcastle get themselves some financial security and Isak can point his suitors towards an easy exit.

However, this sum—which will presumably be in the region of £150 million ($202.4 million) based on Newcastle’s current valuation—could prove to be grossly overpriced if Isak does live up to his stoic icons and hold firm on his playing strike until January.

There is the rather niche alternative scenario which would see Isak invoke Article 17. This freshly inked amendment to FIFA’s transfer regulations theoretically allows any unhappy player to unilaterally terminate his contract at a club without any sporting just cause.

Newcastle would then be entitled to appeal for compensation from the team that Isak joins, although it may take as long as two years and be worth considerably less than the £110 million they turned down from Liverpool earlier this summer.


What Has to Happen for Isak to Join Liverpool?

“As explained to Alex and his representatives, we must always take into consideration the best interests of Newcastle United, the team and our supporters in all decisions and we have been clear that the conditions of a sale this summer have not transpired,” the club wrote in their response to Isak’s social barb.

These conditions extend beyond Liverpool considerably upping their offer of £110 million. That obviously has to happen, but Newcastle also need to sign not one, but two more strikers. Yoane Wissa, who is deploying his own brand of guerrilla warfare to force a way out of Brentford, would represent a replacement for the departed Callum Wilson who served as Isak’s backup. Newcastle would still need an actual alternative to their record-breaking top scorer.

Newcastle’s leading targets for this position have all joined other Premier League clubs. Liam Delap and João Pedro were snapped up early by Chelsea, Benjamin Šeško pointedly chose Manchester United and the Magpies have already lost out to Liverpool in the race for Hugo Ekitiké. With the windfall of Isak’s departure, it’s not a question of money for Newcastle. The options simply aren’t there—or rather, they can’t find them.

At a time when the club don’t have a CEO and the yawning chasm vacated by sporting director Paul Mitchell is still an ugly, exposed sore, there’s little evidence to suggest that Newcastle could even identify a suitable Isak replacement, let alone strike a deal for him.

As the club noted in the most telling line of that public address: “We do not foresee those conditions [for a sale] being met.”


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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Alexander Isak, Newcastle and Liverpool: What Happens Next?.