The men's singles draw for the U.S. Open, the final major of the year, was released ahead of first-round matches kicking off on Sunday.
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz lead the way after their summer playing for major titles at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. The Spaniard took the instant classic French Open final that we won't forget any time soon. Sinner repaid the favor at the All England Club for his first Wimbledon title, taking care of his rival in four sets.
Could we be in for a rubber match to decide the last major of the year? That's certainly the most likely outcome, but not a given.
Alcaraz's path to the final at Flushing Meadows will see some tough matches, with Americans Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe, plus Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Holger Rune and Casper Ruud joining him in the bottom half of the draw. Plus, Alcaraz has an interesting first-round match with 6'11" American Reilly Opelka, who serves absolute missiles. Tough draw aside, the Spaniard is the clear favorite to make it out of the bottom half.
The top half is headlined by Sinner, who'd potentially need to get through American Tommy Paul or world No. 24 Alexander Bublik in the fourth round. Bublik upset Sinner earlier this summer on his way to his second Halle Open title. After that, Sinner's likely opponents would be No. 5 Jack Draper or No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals before a semifinal match against No. 3 Alexander Zverev, No. 8 Alex de Minaur, No. 9 Karen Khachanov or No. 15 Andrey Rublev to decide the top half's finalist. Not an easy draw by any means, but Sinner's path is a bit more clear compared to the matches ahead for Alcaraz.
Here's the full draw:
Bottom half: pic.twitter.com/QxtNX2lWrl
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 21, 2025
Now that we know the potential U.S. Open finals we could see on the second Sunday at Flushing Meadows, let's put together the outcomes that could lead to the best finish for this year's major finale.
Before we get into it, let's lay out some ground rules for this exercise. Any player can only be used a maximum of three times, mainly so we don't have No. 1 Sinner's more clear path to the final up against five other players from the crowded bottom half of the draw. Cool? Cool. Let's get into it:
5. Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
We're starting off with some chaos.
There's a number of intriguing candidates in the top half of the draw that could potentially contend with Sinner. Zverev, Draper, de Minaur, Khachanov and Musetti are the top-10 players in the top half alongside Sinner, but we'll go with a wild card in Rublev here.
Rublev, the ATP No. 15, had Alcaraz on the ropes at the recent Cincinnati Open where they met in the quarterfinal. Rublev took the second set and broke Alcaraz as he served for the match, evening the deciding set at five games apiece before the Spaniard closed it out. Taking down Rublev may have been the most fired up Alcaraz got throughout the whole tournament. Rublev has yet to reach a major semifinal, although he has made runs to the U.S. Open quarterfinal four times. He'd have to get through Zverev in the fourth round to make another quarterfinal and of course, Sinner would likely await in a potential semifinal. Although an unlikely outcome, a final against Alcaraz would at least bring a somewhat competitive match.
4. Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton
An American trying to get past top-ranked Sinner to end the U.S. men's major drought at their home major would be must-see TV. No American man has won a major title since Andy Roddick took home the U.S. Open championship in 2003. Last year, Fritz became the first American to reach the U.S. Open final since Roddick in '09. He's one of the Americans with the best chance to end the drought, but I give the slight nod to Shelton here to give someone else a crack at Sinner in a major final. Fritz fell to Sinner in the final last year in straight sets and is 1-4 in ATP matches against the world No. 1.
Shelton hasn't found success against the Italian either, losing six straight to Sinner after a win back in '23 in Shanghai—his only ATP win against Sinner. However, Shelton heads into the U.S. Open on the heels of some of the best tennis in his young career, winning his first Masters 1000 title two weeks ago in Toronto before he ran out of gas at the Cincinnati Open, falling to world No. 3 Zverev. Shelton doesn't have an easy path at Flushing Meadows, having to get through Alcaraz in a potential quarterfinal and then either Fritz or Djokovic in the semifinal. This may not be the year the American drought ends, but the 22-year-old Shelton may be the best bet to finally get a major, possessing one of the best serves on tour.
3. Jack Draper vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Draper, the world No. 5, got the best of Alcaraz earlier this year at Indian Wells, but the Spaniard quickly returned the favor on clay in Rome. The top-ranked British player has done well on American hard courts, winning at Indian Wells and reaching the semifinals at last year's U.S. Open for his best major finish. Draper lost to Sinner at Flushing Meadows a year ago, who he'd have to get past falling in the No. 1's quarter in this year's draw.
Although he's sat out since Wimbledon, Draper reached the semifinals in the U.S. Open's new-look mixed doubles tournament earlier this week with his partner Jessica Pegula. He's only met Alcaraz in a major once thus far, earlier this year in the round of 16 at the Australian Open where he had to retire due to injury after the first two sets. He'd need to find some magic to make a run this year, but Draper and Zverev are likely the best "anyone but Sinner" candidates to make it out of the top half of the draw.
2. Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic
The 38-year-old Djokovic is in search of that elusive 25th major. He already holds the most major titles in the Open Era with 24, just past Rafael Nadal (22) and Roger Federer (20). His last major title came at the U.S. Open in 2023—his best finish since then is an appearance in last year's Wimbledon final where he lost to Alcaraz in straight sets.
Djokovic has made it to the semifinal in each major this year, and hasn't competed since Wimbledon where he fell to Sinner in straights. Before that, his last event was the French Open where he also lost to Sinner in three. The 38-year-old legend would have to get through Fritz in his quarterfinal and then Alcaraz in a semifinal, but a potential rematch with Sinner for No. 25 brings all the drama. Djokovic is 4-6 against Sinner, but hasn't beaten the Italian since the '23 ATP Finals.
1. Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz
The next chapter of the new signature tennis rivalry is the only answer at the top.
One of Alcaraz and Sinner has been in each major final for the past two years (seven total tournaments), with the top-ranked players meeting in the final at the French Open and Wimbledon this summer. Alcaraz came out on top at Roland Garros in one of the best matches you'll ever see, battling back from two sets down and fighting off three championship points to eventually win the deciding tiebreak. It was Sinner's turn at the All England Club, defeating the Spaniard in four sets after dropping the first.
They met in another final at the recent Cincinnati Open, where Sinner unfortunately had to retire due to illness. He got some time to rest up, withdrawing from the U.S. Open's reimagined mixed doubles event that began quickly after the Cincinnati final. A potential Sinner-Alcaraz final at Flushing Meadows would be for the No. 1 ranking. But mainly, any opportunity to see the next round of the sport's already historic rivalry is an outcome worth rooting for.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Ranking the Five U.S. Open Men's Singles Finals We Most Want to See With Draw Set.