The NFL is back. The games are back. So are the storylines.
Micah Parsons is gone from one team and a potential savior for another. Patrick Mahomes has long been a hero and savant in Kansas City, and this Friday, he takes on a team begging to see him go away. In Buffalo, it’s a rematch rife with playoff implications even if they won’t materialize for four months.
Then there’s a reunion of sorts in the swamps of northern New Jersey, where a 41-year-old quarterback tries to prove it wasn’t me, it was you.
Here, we’re going to not only look at the best games of Week 1 but dissect them, honing in on specific matchups that could decide the outcomes. It’s something we’ll have every week, with the number of games fluctuating depending on the schedule.
It all starts Thursday night, when the defending champion Eagles host the Parsons-less Cowboys. The Super Bowl banner will drop while the curtain will rise on the NFL’s 106th season.
Cowboys at Eagles
Spread: Philadelphia -8.5
Key matchup: Saquon Barkley vs. Cowboys’ front seven
Key stat: Barkley ran for 233 yards against Dallas in 2024.
Date, Time, TV: Sept. 4, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
It’s tough to focus on anything that isn’t Parsons-related, but there’s an interesting angle to investigate that’s adjacent.
After last week’s shocking trade that sent Parsons to the Packers, Cowboys owner/general manager/czar Jerry Jones spoke with the media and stated the run defense needed to improve, citing that as one reason for the deal.
Enter Saquon Barkley.
In 2024, Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards, second only to Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 in a single season. Against the Cowboys, Barkley ran for 233 yards on 5.1 yards per carry as Philadelphia swept Dallas while scoring 75 points. While it’s often an oversimplification to say stopping the run equates to winning, it’s impossible to ignore the Cowboys’ splits in 2024.
In Dallas’s seven wins last season, it allowed 100 yards rushing three times while permitting 4.3 YPC. In the Cowboys’ 10 defeats, they only held an opponent to under the century mark once while surrendering a staggering 5.0 YPC, a figure that would have bested only the Panthers.
Unfortunately for Dallas, there’s little reason to think the defense is fixed. New coordinator Matt Eberflus watched his Bears allow 4.8 YPC last year, the same number as Dallas, ranking tied for 28th. The personnel is also weaker with the year-long recovery ahead of linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, along with the loss of Demarcus Lawrence and Parsons off the front.
The arrival of Kenny Clark on the interior could help, but the nine-year veteran had his worst season in 2024 since being a rookie, totaling one sack and four tackles for loss across 17 games.
With Barkley looking to become the first player to follow up a 2,000-yard season with at least 1,500 yards the following year, he has a great first foe to face.
Verderame’s verdict: Eagles 34, Cowboys 23
Chiefs at Chargers
Spread: Kansas City -3
Key matchup: Chargers’ revamped O-Line vs. Chiefs’ defensive front
Key stat: Los Angeles allowed sacks on 7.9% of pass plays in 2024.
Date, Time, TV: Sept. 5, 8 p.m. ET, YouTube
If the Chargers would like to win the AFC West some time this decade, they’d do well to start by beating Mahomes and the Chiefs … occasionally.
In Mahomes’s career, the two-time league MVP is 35–5 against the division, including a 10–2 mark against Los Angeles. Oddly enough, he’s only lost once on the road against an AFC West opponent, sporting a perfect 7–0 mark against the Chargers away from Arrowhead Stadium.
Last year, first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter did an excellent job limiting Mahomes. Across their two games, Los Angeles allowed a total of 36 points while holding Mahomes to 455 yards and two touchdowns with an interception on 6.8 yards per attempt. The problem? The Chiefs still won both games on the strength of fourth-quarter, game-winning drives orchestrated by Mahomes.
While Minter and the defense might be able to slow down the Rashee Rice-less Chiefs (he’s suspended the first six games), the other side of the ball could prove more challenging.
Justin Herbert is an elite talent, but there are issues up front. All-Pro left tackle Rashawn Slater is out for the year with a torn patellar tendon, forcing Joe Alt to take his place. The rest of the line features Trey Pipkins III on the right side with Mekhi Becton, Bradley Bozeman and Zion Johnson inside.
Last year, Los Angeles allowed sacks on 7.9% of passing plays, ranking 22nd while Herbert was hit 62 times, the fourth-most in football. Without Slater, the line is inarguably worse off. In the two games against the Chiefs last year, the Chargers were overrun at times, permitting five sacks and 17 QB hits.
For Los Angeles to pull the upset, it needs to run the ball in an effort to limit Mahomes’s possessions while also making the line’s job easier. It won’t be easy.
In 2024, the Chargers had trouble finding space against Steve Spagnuolo’s unit, rushing for 149 yards and 3.1 YPC across two games.
Verderame’s verdict: Chiefs 27, Chargers 19
Steelers at Jets
Spread: Pittsburgh -2.5
Key matchup: Aaron Glenn vs. Aaron Rodgers
Key stat: Rodgers has lost three of the last four against Glenn.
Date, Time, TV: Sept. 7, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The first time Aaron Glenn got a close look at Aaron Rodgers, he was still in uniform.
In 2008, Glenn was finishing a 14-year career with the Saints when the Packers came to the Superdome and were humbled 51–29. Rodgers threw three interceptions that day while Glenn, inactive that afternoon, watched from the sideline. Three days later, Glenn was placed on the injured reserve list and hung up his cleats for good.
Since then, the pair spent two years in the NFC North together, with Glenn running Detroit’s defense while Rodgers captained Green Bay. In three of those four meetings, Glenn won out, limiting Rodgers to four touchdowns and as many interceptions in his victories.
Now, Rodgers returns to MetLife Stadium after spending two underwhelming and injury-plagued seasons with the Jets as a member of the Steelers, hoping to ruin Glenn’s debut as head coach.
Rodgers comes in with the more talented roster, but questions abound. At 41 years old, what does he have left? A four-time MVP, Rodgers hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2021 divisional round. Pittsburgh is also one of the NFL’s oldest teams with a slew of 30-and-older talents, including Darius Slay (34), Jalen Ramsey (30), T.J. Watt (30), Cam Heyward (36), Chris Boswell (34) and Rodgers (41), among others.
Then there’s the question of how much Rodgers and the addition of DK Metcalf, along with the subtraction of George Pickens, really do for an offense that ranked 23rd last year. Against New York, the Steelers will face 2024’s third-ranked defense led by All-Pro corner Sauce Gardner and a front including Will McDonald IV and Quinnen Williams, who combined for 16.5 sacks. For the Jets to win, the front four must win consistently, which they did last year by ranking 11th in sacks (43) and pressure rate (23.5%).
If Rodgers and the Steelers’ attack looks good against Glenn and his defensive charges, it will give reason to think Pittsburgh can potentially win a playoff game, something it hasn’t done since 2016.
Verderame’s verdict: Steelers 17, Jets 13
Lions at Packers
Spread: GB -2.5
Key matchup: Jeff Hafley vs. the Lions’ brain trust
Key stat: The Packers had the 31st-highest blitz rate last season.
Date, Time, TV: Sept. 7, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Only one team had a pair of Pro Bowl tackles in 2024: the Lions.
This week, Detroit will be in for arguably its best test on the edges with a visit to Lambeau Field. Only two weeks ago, it appeared Green Bay would be outmatched with Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness going against Lions tackles Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker. Suddenly, the addition of Parsons has changed the calculus.
Last year, only three teams created more turnovers than Green Bay. The Packers also relied heavily on a four-man rush under first-year coordinator Jeff Hafley, ranking 31st in blitz rate (17.3%). The result was the 16th-best pressure rate (22.1%) and nobody reaching even eight sacks.
Still, Green Bay created sacks by simulating pressure more than anybody but the Ravens, walking corners and linebackers up and either faking blitzes or bringing them before dropping out a linemen to still have seven in coverage.
For Jared Goff, the concern will be figuring out who is coming and how much help to provide on Parsons, whether he’s lined up over Decker or Sewell. Against the Packers in 2024, Detroit permitted a single sack and six quarterback hits across two wins. On the interior, the Lions have a rookie second-round guard in Tate Ratledge, along with second-year man Christian Mahogany. As important, All-Pro center Frank Ragnow retired, leaving guard-turned-center Graham Glasgow to make the protection calls under a new coordinator, John Morton.
Bottom line: Look for Hafley to give myriad looks to Morton, Glasgow and Goff while scheming up one-on-one opportunities with Parsons off the edge. The Lions have the talent to win up front, but they better figure out what they’re looking at quickly.
Verderame’s verdict: Lions 26, Packers 24
Ravens at Bills
Spread: Buffalo -1.5
Key matchup: Ravens’ offense vs. Bills’ defense on third down
Key stat: In two games last year, Baltimore converted 63.9% vs. Buffalo.
Date, Time, TV: Sept. 7, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Last year, the Ravens saw their season end in Orchard Park. Now, the new one begins there.
Baltimore and Buffalo clash in what is the most consequential non-divisional game of the opening week. Last year, the two AFC powers met in both Week 4 and the divisional round. The Ravens prevailed 35–10 in the first matchup, but lost 27–25 in the more meaningful rematch.
To win on the road Sunday night, the Ravens must continue their third-down dominance. Last year, Baltimore ranked third in the category at 48.2%, trailing only the Buccaneers and Chiefs. Against the Bills, they were a combined 12-of-19 (63.1%) against a defense tied for 28th on third down (43.8%).
Of course, the big difference in the playoff win for Buffalo was the turnover ratio. The Bills were plus-3 that night with two fumble recoveries and an interception of Lamar Jackson. On the year, only the Vikings and Steelers had more than Buffalo’s 33 takeaways, while Baltimore, which only committed 11 turnovers during the regular season, couldn’t handle the ball.
If the Ravens can maintain their excellence on third down and protect the football, they will likely win. But if Sean McDermott’s defense can find a few more stops and perhaps steal a possession, the Bills could start 1–0.
Verderame’s verdict: Ravens 30, Bills 27
Vikings at Bears
Spread: Minnesota -1.5
Key matchup: DC Brian Flores vs. OC Ben Johnson
Key stat: The Bears allowed an NFL-worst 68 sacks in 2024.
Date, Time, TV: Sept. 8, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
This won’t be an easy first test for Ben Johnson as coach of the Bears. Johnson, who spent the past four years with the Lions, including his last three in Detroit as a top-notch coordinator overseeing two top-three offenses, now leads the Bears against a Vikings team coming off a 14-win season.
While the national story will be J.J. McCarthy’s performance, in many respects, the game will be determined by whether Johnson’s revamped offensive line can block against the ultra-aggressive defensive stylings of Brian Flores.
Under Flores, the Vikings ranked fifth in points allowed last year while blitzing 38.9% of the time, the most in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense was buoyed by a pair of free-agent signings in Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, who combined for 23.5 sacks and 41 quarterback hits. Against the Bears, they’ll find winnable matchups against left tackle Braxton Jones and right tackle Darnell Wright.
For Johnson, the key will be second-year quarterback Caleb Williams getting the ball out quickly against overload and zero blitzes, while also being able to identify those presnap looks. If Williams handles Flores’s multitude of pressure packages, there’s winnable matchups outside for Chicago’s receivers in DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.
As a rookie, Williams was sacked five times and lost a fumble in a pair of defeats to the Vikings, but also threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns in their Week 12 tilt at Soldier Field.
Ultimately, Williams needs to be sharp at the line and then be protected behind it, while Johnson must use his offensive creativity to get into good down-and-distances.
Verderame’s verdict: Vikings 17, Bears 15
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as What to Watch in NFL Week 1: Matchups That Will Decide Six of the Biggest Games.