U.S. Open 2025 Men’s Seed Report: Picks and Predictions From New York

The 2025 movie Sinners is a masterful bit of filmmaking, all pyrotechnics and risk, a mix of genres and shape-shifting. And there’s lots of blood, “sanguineous fountains,” per The New York Times. See it if you have not.

The 2025 tennis serial, Sinner, is something else entirely. In this story, the world’s best player performs his duties with sheer bloodlessness. He takes few unnecessary risks. He does not play for the cameras. He wins with power and precision, but most of all, with ruthless efficiency.

Yet, there is worthy entertainment in Sinner. Jannik Sinner is a generational tennis talent. Coupled with his rival Carlos Alcaraz, they are quickly drawing rave reviews, box office numbers and causing a certain amnesia for the Rodger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic franchise that preceded it.

Will they play in the final scene of the fifth consecutive event they have both entered? Stay tuned. But first, our men’s seed report …

The top 16

1. Jannik Sinner

Despite his retirement in Cincinnati—not a great omen, given August heat and humidity in New York and a best-of-five format—he remains the favorite. He is the winner of the previous major and the winner of five majors since the start of 2024. It’s fun to be a contrarian, but hard, in good faith, to pick anyone else.

2. Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz is the 2022 U.S. Open champion—could that really have been three years ago?—and the Cincinnati winner, if by walkover in the final. His talent is undeniable, and so is his entertainment value. But he also has a real appetite for competition in battle that isn’t always rightfully recognized. If we discount Cincinnati, this is still an opportunity to claim some revenge against Sinner and win a turf war, beating him (again) on a hard court. A first-rounder against Opelka will be fun.

Sinner vs. Alcaraz at majors

3. Alexander Zverev

There’s a hard-to-shake feeling that the window is closing fast on that elusive major for Zverev. It’s encouraging that he played well in Cincinnati, even if he’s a bit dinged up. It’s encouraging that he’s been working—at least, informally—with the Nadal camp, which has reinforced the message that he needs to be less passive. But will he take that to heart, especially in challenging times? (And how will he handle heat and humidity?)

4. Taylor Fritz

It was a disappointing North American hard court summer, but Fritz, a U.S. Open finalist in 2024, has aged into the kind of player who does everything in his power to win and excels over five sets. The overarching question now: Can he crack the Alcaraz-Sinner duopoly, against which he is a combined 1–7?

5. Jack Draper

The good news is that he is in the draw. In more good news, he has a big-time deal with Vuori. The less good news is that he has not played since Wimbledon. Not only was he a semifinalist in New York last year, but he won on the gritty Indian Wells courts in March; he’s had success on American hard courts. However, concerns about residual injuries and a lack of matches coming into the U.S. Open are far from ideal.

6. Ben Shelton

First, look at that skinny ranking. Shelton was crowned champion in Canada (at the expense of his play in Cincinnati), and his evolution continues. In a matter of a few years (warning: baseball metaphor ahead), he has gone from live-armed Nuke LaLoosh to a Clayton Kershaw, who marries power with generalship. He falls in the cluster of contenders after Alcaraz and Sinner.

7. Novak Djokovic

His previous event? Wimbledon. The one before that? Roland Garros. To borrow from the film, This Is (nearly) 40, at this age and stage, Djokovic is—pretty much exclusively—playing in service of his 25th major. There is little objective source for optimism, except for the fact that he is Novak Djokovic. Interesting first-rounder against Learner Tien.

8. Alex de Minaur

As always, he’s a thoroughly admirable pro’s pro who wrings it all out of his game. And he’s a candidate for the fastest man in the sport, which helps on grass. His win in D.C. augurs success. However, de Minaur’s modest weaponry means that, while he must be beaten, against better players, he often is.

9. Karen Khachanov

The Toronto finalist—who once reached the U.S. Open semifinals and nearly beat Nadal in New York—is a total pro. He’s unlikely to win the title, but also unlikely to lose to anyone ranked beneath him. (And the gracious speech below deserves another reference.)

10. Lorenzo Musetti

He’s a stylish Italian, and his one-handed zing is a joy to watch. His game has really slipped since his (quite successful) clay court jag. He lost early in Canada (Alex Michelsen) and Cincinnati (Benjamin Bonzi) though he did, improbably, make the doubles final.

11. Holger Rune

If only Rune competed against opponents as fiercely and devotedly as he does against online trolls. We’ll pencil him into Week 2. The Dane spent some quality time with Andre Agassi in July, and he played better in his next event, but he’s still prone to packing it in when he’s not at his best. He has a lot of talent, and doesn’t turn 23 until April, but there is too much instability in Rune’s game for him to be considered a real contender.

12. Casper Ruud

Already a runner-up at this event (excellent mixed doubles run). Ruud is a former finalist (2022) but—especially off clay—hasn’t had a great go of it in 2025. He’s an admirable player and an outstanding tennis citizen, but you wonder if he hasn’t already hit his ceiling.

13. Daniil Medvedev

Disappointment seems to be a constant companion for Medvedev, ready to ambush at any point, under any set of circumstances. He is such an asset to the tennis community—funny, unpredictable, emotionally accessible, sui generis—but, sadly, his game is an asset in decline. Four years ago, he won this major. Currently, he’s gone more than two years without a title of any kind.

14. Tommy Paul

One need not worry about his heart. Paul’s health, though, is another matter. It’s been a frustrating few months, starting with an abdominal injury that hampered his (nonetheless successful) Roland Garros and Wimbledon campaign that had him wearing a boot on his foot. Like Draper, the lack of match play coming into New York is a cause for concern.

15. Andrey Rublev

Still in search of his first major semifinal, Rublev reached the quarterfinals four times at the U.S. Open, starting in (gulp) 2017. He’s too good a player not to be in the top 10, but too erratic to be considered a serious contender.

16. Jakub Menšík

The Miami winner has proven himself on U.S. hard courts this year, but he’s cooled off since. The weather, however, has not, and Menšík seems to struggle with extreme heat and humidity (as was the case in Cincinnati).

Frances Tiafoe plans his year around peaking at the U.S. Open. | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Seeds 17-32

17. Frances Tiafoe

It’s his time to shine. Tiafoe speaks openly about how he plans his year to peak at the U.S. Open. His 2025 has been on-brand, with some dazzling wins pocked by some strange losses—and zero titles. His track record at this major speaks to his ability to elevate in New York. (While we are here, note Tiafoe surprising a University of Louisville student with a $30,000 scholarship.)

18. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

He is the best player never to have won a title, but came close in D.C.

19. Francisco Cerúndolo

An injury he sustained in Toronto is cause for concern. There is much to love about his forehand, but not when every shot brings pain.

20. Jiří Lehečka

He is an up-and-down player, but the faster the court, the more dangerous Lehečka is.

23. Alexander Bublik

A strong showing at the U.S. Open—after his Wimbledon flameout—would be consistent with the rhythms of Bublik’s inconsistent career.

24. Flavio Cobolli

Can he go deep in successive majors?

27. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas has reached major finals (including one on hard court) but is now a stock in decline. If you’re in New York, go cheer him on; he could use the support.

31. Gabriel Diallo

The steady climb continues for the former Kentucky player.

Dark horse corridor

Seb Korda: Often injured eventually the talent will come forth?

João Fonseca: There’s a wedge in the wheel of his hype train, but he has too much power and potential not to be taken seriously.

Benjamin Bonzi: He beat Musetti and Tsitsipas in Cincinnati.

Gaël Monfils: Enjoy him and hope this isn’t “finis.”

Marin Čilić: All former champions merit mention.

Darwin Blanch: The American teenager has been winning in bunches lately.

Courentin Moutet: Pesky opponent who runs hot…and cold.

First round matches to watch

Djokovic vs. Tien: It’s always fun when one player is double the age of the other.
Sebastian Korda vs. Cam Norrie
Bublik vs. Čilić
Alcaraz vs. Reilly Opelka
Paul vs. Elmer Møller: A rerun of their first-round match at Roland Garros.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Musetti