Forde-Yard Dash: Assessing CFP Strength By Conference

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where season-opening struggles can even extend down to the mascots. First Quarter: This Is Not an Overreaction—It’s Legit Bad at Alabama. Second Quarter: Debuts, Good and Bad.

Third Quarter: Conference Call

As stated in last week’s Dash, the College Football Playoff posturing over strength of schedule and quality wins will be pervasive throughout the season. Which is why the nonconference games played in the opening weeks will be of major importance in determining SOS outside of league play. Here is your league-by-league breakdown of Weeks Zero and 1, in order of winning percentage:

Big Ten (21)

Overall nonconference record to date: 16–2
Against Power 4/Notre Dame competition: 2–1
Against the rest of FBS: 12–1
Against FCS: 2–0

Best win: Ohio State 14, Texas 7. Taking down the preseason No. 1 team with a stout defensive effort moves the Buckeyes to No. 1 in The Dash’s estimation (see below). Quarterback Julian Sayin was calm and in command, and the offense will click more going forward.

Worst loss: Tulane 23, Northwestern 3. SMU transfer quarterback Preston Stone threw four interceptions and was dropped for 42 yards in losses. And then Tulane coach Jon Sumrall called out the Wildcats after the game for refusing to honor the Green Wave’s request to wear white uniforms as part of their 20-year remembrance of Hurricane Katrina.

Takeaway: The Big Ten did not challenge itself much in Week 1, other than the Texas–Ohio State showdown—and winning that was huge. But otherwise this was a cautious entry into the season that resulted in a lot of wins that don’t resonate much at this point.

This week’s highlight opportunities: Michigan at Oklahoma; Illinois at Duke; Iowa at Iowa State; Oklahoma State at Oregon; Boston College at Michigan State.

SEC (22)

Overall nonconference record to date: 14–2
Against Power 4/Notre Dame competition: 4–2
Against the rest of FBS: 5–0
Against FCS: 5–0

Best win: LSU 17, Clemson 10. LSU needed it after losing five straight season openers. The SEC needed it after watching Texas and Alabama take losses earlier in the day. The Tigers’ second-half dominance was impressive, as was their overall defensive growth.

Worst loss: Florida State 31, Alabama 17. As noted in the First Quarter, this was a siren-blaring defeat for Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide. Bama doesn’t look like Bama.

Takeaway: The SEC doesn’t do soft launches, which opens up the risk of losses. But also the chance for big wins—and there were more of those. In addition to LSU’s road win, Auburn beat Baylor in Waco, Texas, by two touchdowns and the league scored neutral-field wins in Atlanta on successive days with Tennessee over Syracuse and South Carolina over Virginia Tech. If there are concerns at the top after Texas and Alabama lost, there are none elsewhere yet.

This week’s highlight opportunities: Kansas at Missouri; Arizona State at Mississippi State; Michigan at Oklahoma; Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech.

Big 12 (23)

Overall nonconference record to date: 14–3
Against Power 4/Notre Dame competition: 2–3
Against the rest of FBS: 3–0
Against FCS: 9–0

Best win: TCU 48, North Carolina 14. The Horned Frogs hung more points on Bill Belichick than any opponent he’s ever faced, quite the welcome to college moment. While much of the focus understandably was on how bad Chapel Bill’s debut went, TCU showcased playmakers all over the field—including a defense that scored two touchdowns. The only question is whether the Frogs’ social media account should be flagged for excessive celebration after relentlessly trolling the Tar Heels.

Worst loss: Auburn 38, Baylor 24. A Bears team that won its final six league games last season and was touted by some to win the Big 12 this year got an SEC opponent in Waco, and didn’t make much of the opportunity. Baylor was outrushed by 243 yards.

Takeaway: The league went heavy on cupcakes, going 9–0 against FCS competition. The performance against Power 4 opponents was a mixed bag, with good wins by TCU and Utah (over UCLA) and three teams that got behind and stayed behind (Colorado, Cincinnati and Baylor).

This week’s highlight opportunities: Iowa at Iowa State; Baylor at SMU; Oklahoma State at Oregon; Kansas at Missouri; Arizona State at Mississippi State; Stanford at BYU.

ACC (24)

Overall nonconference record: 12–5
Against Power 4/Notre Dame competition: 3–4
Against the rest of FBS: 4–1
Against FCS: 5–0

Best win: The Sunshine State double dip, with Florida State routing Alabama and Miami beating Notre Dame in a thriller. Those results rekindled hopes for the maddeningly dormant rivalry between the Seminoles and Hurricanes to return to national prominence.

Worst loss: TCU 48, North Carolina 14. Pretty much the worst-case scenario performance in a Labor Day night standalone window.

Takeaway: As usual, the ACC dives into Week 1 like no other conference, playing marquee games across the five-day slate. (League commissioner Jim Phillips attended at least part of nine of 17 games.) Results were mixed, but this is the only league that has scored two victories over top-10 opponents.

This week’s highlight opportunities: Illinois at Duke; Baylor at SMU; Virginia at North Carolina State (a nonconference game); Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech; Boston College at Michigan State; Stanford at BYU.

American (25)

Overall nonconference record: 9–5
Against Power 4/Notre Dame competition: 1–3
Against the rest of FBS: 3–1
Against FCS: 5–1

Best win: South Florida 34, Boise State 7. Blowing out the reigning Group of 6 playoff representative was a strong statement, both for the Bulls and the league. USF has underachieved in recent seasons, and the American would benefit from a resurgence in Tampa under third-year coach Alex Golesh.

Worst loss: Tarleton State 30, Army 27. The defending league champion losing to an FCS opponent is not a great look. The Black Knights were a minus-3 turnover margin, which basically guarantees a loss given the low number of possessions in most Army games.

Takeaway: The American got a leg up on the Mountain West and everyone else in the Group of 6 with the wins by USF and Tulane. Depth could be iffy, again.

This week’s highlight opportunities: South Florida at Florida; North Carolina at Charlotte; Army at Kansas State; Houston at Rice.

Mountain West (26)

Overall nonconference record: 8–7
Against Power 4/Notre Dame competition: 1–5
Against the rest of FBS: 4–2
Against FCS: 3–0

Best win: Hawai’i 23, Stanford 20. While that ultimately might say more about the Cardinal than the Rainbow Warriors, it was still a comeback triumph over a Power 4 opponent that gave Hawai’i its biggest victory under fourth-year coach Timmy Chang.

Worst loss: Central Michigan 16, San Jose State 14. The Spartans were two-touchdown favorites over the visiting Chippewas. They were a minus-3 in turnovers and missed both attempted field goals.

Takeaway: Boise State looked bad in the blowout loss to South Florida, which is an opportunity for everyone else but a problem for league perception. We’ll see who else can step up and contend for the league title.

This week’s highlight opportunities: San Jose State at Texas; Utah State at Texas A&M; UCLA at UNLV.

Sun Belt (27)

Overall nonconference record: 7–7
Against Power 4/Notre Dame competition: 0–5
Against the rest of FBS: 2–2
Against FCS: 5–0

Best win: Appalachian State 34, Charlotte 11. The Dowell Loggains era in Boone, N.C., got off to a strong start with a dominant win in Charlotte. The Mountaineers outgained the 49ers 586–218, with former SEC quarterback AJ Swann (Vanderbilt, LSU) throwing for 368 and three touchdowns.

Worst loss: Rice 14, Louisiana 12. The Ragin’ Cajuns' glory days under Billy Napier continue to recede in the distance. Louisiana completed just 10-of-28 passes for 88 yards, recording the lowest pass efficiency rating in the nation (54.97).

Takeaway: The league’s penchant for early season upsets was missing in Week 1, but some juicy targets lie ahead.

This week’s highlight opportunities: James Madison at Louisville; Troy at Clemson; Arkansas State at Arkansas; Georgia Southern at USC; Louisiana-Monroe at Alabama.

Conference USA (28)

Overall nonconference record: 6–6
Against Power 4/Notre Dame competition: 0–3
Against the rest of FBS: 0–2
Against FCS: 6–1

Best win: How about a quality loss? Kennesaw State lost to Wake Forest 10–9 in its first game under first-year coach Jerry Mack, who had been an assistant coach in the NFL and prior to that the head coach at FCS North Carolina Central.

Worst loss: Austin Peay 34, Middle Tennessee 14. Former Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason is now 3–10 leading the Blue Raiders.

Takeaway: Dream of FBS wins, CUSA teams. They have to be out there somewhere.

This week’s highlight opportunities: Florida International at Penn State; Kennesaw State at Indiana; Delaware at Colorado; Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin; Louisiana Tech at LSU.

Mid-American Conference (29)

Overall nonconference record: 4–9
Against Power 4/Notre Dame competition: 0–6
Against the rest of FBS: 1–3
Against FCS: 3–0

Best win: Central Michigan 16, San Jose State 14. A great way to kick off the Matt Drinkall era, winning as a two-touchdown road underdog.

Worst loss: Texas State 52, Eastern Michigan 27. The Eagles weren’t very competitive on the road in San Marcos, Texas, surrendering 606 yards.

Takeaway: It was a week of almosts for MACtion, with Ohio pushing Rutgers and other league teams hanging with other Big Ten opponents, but not much in the win column. The Eddie Georgia tenure at Bowling Green got off to a victorious start and could be fun to watch.

This week’s highlight opportunities: Northern Illinois at Maryland; Kent State at Texas Tech; Central Michigan at Pittsburgh; Miami (Ohio) at Rutgers; Bowling Green at Cincinnati; Ball State at Auburn; Akron at Nebraska.

This Week’s Playoff Bracket

How The Dash sees the playoff after Week 1. The reminder here is that preseason rankings are largely tossed and what has happened so far on the field is what matters (30). So this is a complete changeup from the preseason bracket.

First Round

Games on campus sites:

No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Auburn
No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Tennessee
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 TCU
No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Georgia Tech

First-round byes:

No. 4 Florida State, would play winner of South Florida–Auburn in the Cotton Bowl
No. 3 Miami, would play winner of Notre Dame–Tennessee in the Orange Bowl
No. 2 LSU, would play winner of Texas-TCU in the Sugar Bowl
No. 1 Ohio State, would play winner of Utah–Georgia Tech in the Rose Bowl