U.S. Open 2025 Women’s Seed Report: Picks and Predictions From New York

For a sport with no clock, time flies in tennis. Heading into Wimbledon, the word on Iga Świątek was that her career had passed its prime. She hadn’t won a tournament—much less a major—in over a year. And she arrived at the All England Club ranked No. 8, her lowest in years.

That was late June. Here we are in late August, and after having won Wimbledon for the first time, she sashays into New York ranked No. 2, fresh from winning the Cincinnati title, and in pursuit of her second U.S. Open championship.

In keeping with the New York City theme, her road will be full of potholes and potential blockades. The defending champion, Aryna Sabalenka, is ranked No. 1 and is seeking to salvage her 2025 major campaign. Coco Gauff is trying to win her second major of the year, and second U.S. Open title. And there is Madison Keys, who won the previous major played on a hard court.

Still, our Magic 8 Ball says all signs point to Świątek. The third seed will end up in pole position. There’s now margin built into her game and her defense will win her as many points as her offense. Above all, the grey cloud that shrouded her pre-Wimbledon season seems to have passed.

Stay tuned, but first, our women’s seed report …

The Top 16

1. Aryna Sabalenka

She’s won 17 matches at majors this year, but has no major title to show for it. She is No. 1, but hasn’t won a title since the first weekend in May. Her power is devastating, as is her power to reset. Sabalenka is the defending champion, who has won 13 of her past 14 matches in New York, but there aren’t a lot of vibes heading into Flushing Meadows.

2. Iga Świątek

How these plots change. Heading into Wimbledon, Świątek was reeling, down to her lowest ranking in years. Since then, she’s won WImbledon, found her game and (not coincidentally) her joy, and is back deep in the mix to win a title she first took in 2022. Plus, she’s already a mixed doubles finalist here.

3. Coco Gauff

Now with a new coach, Gauff will try to get back to her winning ways at the event she won in 2023. She’s had a strange year, starting with a meh first third of the season. She then played well on clay, culminating with a Roland Garros title, her second career major. Then, she lost eight of her following 12 sets, including a first-round loss to Dayana Yastremska at Wimbledon, followed by losses in Montreal (Victoria Mboko) and Cincinnati (Jasmine Paolini). We know her serve and forehand can go off, but we also know she can play through her lapses.

4. Jessica Pegula

A player worth emulating, Pegula maxes out everything she can control, avoids own goals and competes uncompromisingly. Solid gets you so far, but only so far. She’s had an uneven year and two rough losses at the North American hard court events. A U.S. Open finalist in 2024, but there’s little indication that Pegula’s back to that level.

5. Mirra Andreeva

The salon has divined that she is a future major winner, but she still has some steps to go. (Compounded by an ankle injury she sustained in Canada.)

6. Madison Keys

The winner of the year’s first major has a real chance of taking the last. A finalist (gulp) eight years ago, she knows the surface and the context, and she is likely to play on one of two courts. Especially with Sabalenka and Gauff struggling a bit, Keys has to be on the contender list.

Madison Keys is proven on hard courts, taking home the 2025 Australian Open title. | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

7. Jasmine Paolini

Brava. Paolini has acquitted herself admirably in 2025, proving that ’24 was the rule, not the exception. You wish she had more pop on the serve, but she makes up for it with her movement—and spirit. (In Cincinnati, she smiled and joked through ankle treatment during a match she won against Gauff.)

8. Amanda Anisimova

Let’s pause to note that the No. 8 seed is the fourth-ranked American. Someone at the USTA deserves a raise. So does Anisimova, who not only reached the Wimbledon final, but recovered after a bruising defeat, and is back in the business of winning matches with authoritative tennis. Alas, she finds herself in Świątek’s quarter.

9. Elena Rybakina

In a vacuum, she ranks right up there with Sabalenka, Świątek and Gauff. However, she exists in a world with instability and a suspended-then-reinstated coach and some baffling results. She incurred some tough losses in Washington, D.C., and Montreal, but then thundered back to reach the semifinals in Cincinnati, including a comprehensive takedown of Sabalenka. (Less sanguine: She’s never been beyond the third round at the U.S. Open.)

10. Emma Navarro

A U.S. Open semifinalist last year (beating Gauff along the way), her game has slipped a bit in 2025. Navarro won 25 matches but is outside the top 10 and could use a solid showing at the year’s final major.

11. Karolína Muchová

As always, Muchová’s success depends mostly on her ability to stay healthy. The game is there. The athleticism is there. The attacking mentality is there. It’s just a question of health for the two-time U.S. Open semifinalist.

12. Elina Svitolina

As her country, Ukraine, is still besieged, she charges on. (Svitolina is such an admirable player and a former U.S. Open semifinalist.)

13. Ekaterina Alexandrova

Like fellow Russian, Karen Khachanov, all she does is win a lot of matches and seldom takes bad losses.

14. Clara Tauson

A strong 2025 includes a Week 2 showing at Wimbledon and a pummeling of Świątek in Canada. One worries about her on a stiflingly hot day, but a player to watch.

15. Daria Kasatkina

The top Australian is worthy of your support. Kasatkina deploys crafty, easy-on-the-eyes tennis, but her lack of power creates a ceiling on her promise.

16. Belinda Bencic

A Wimbledon semifinalist (and 2019 U.S. Open semifinalist) merits mention.

Seeds 17-32

17. Liudmila Samsonova

She is a dangerous, athletic player, as long she doesn’t know the identity of her next opponent.

20. Diana Shnaider

She is barely playing .500 ball in a disappointing 2025, but Shnaider is still a sneaky-good lefty shotmaker.

22. Victoria Mboko

No more sub-300 ranking (Australia), no more qualifying (Roland Garros) and no more lucky losing (Wimbledon). Mboko is now seeded, doesn’t turn 19 until next week and is so poised.

23. Naomi Osaka

The two-time U.S. Open champion played A-level tennis in Montreal (until the last hour of the final) and seems recharged with a new, professional coach.

27. Marta Kostyuk

Kostyuk is a hot-and-cold player who competes well and with passion. Assuming her wrist is okay, she is a player worthy of starring on your racing form.

31. Leylah Fernandez

The former U.S. Open finalist won D.C. last month and enters New York with some momentum.

32. McCartney Kessler

It’s been an impressive past year for the former college star.

Emma Raducanu will look to recreate the magic of her 2021 U.S. Open title run. | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Dark horse pasture

Emma Raducanu: The 2021 U.S. Open champion may not (yet) have come close to winning another major, but she’s in the top 40, won two-dozen matches this year and is tougher than the social media mob would have you believe.

Barbora Krejčíková: All two-time major winners merit mention.

Ella Seidel: The 20-year-old German made her mark in Cincinnati and is trying to qualify at this writing.

Petra Kvitová: May she get the send-off she so richly deserves.

Venus Williams: Multiple-time champs get name-checked, even in their mid-40s.

Olga Danilović: Her lefty game could cause problems.

Alycia Parks: She is one of the more potent servers in the women’s game, and is back in the top 50.

Taylor Townsend: The doubles star qualified for the main singles draw.

First round matches to watch

Williams vs. Muchová: Not an easy match for either player, but for different reasons.
Gauff v. Ajla Tomljanović: Gauff makes her debut with her new coach against the last player to beat Serena Williams.
Laura Siegemund vs. Shnaider: This one has upset potential.
Tauson vs. Alexandra Eala
Andreeva vs. Parks: A top returner vs. a top server.
Mboko v. Krejcikova: A hot prospect against a proven winner.