The College Football Playoff’s Future Rests on the Big Ten. Will Tony Petitti Compromise?

Last week in Las Vegas, three of the four power-conference commissioners gathered to discuss the latest issues impacting college athletics. The College Football Playoff’s future naturally became the focal point for ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, the Big 12’s Brett Yormark and SEC’s Greg Sankey barely a day after a controversial Selection Sunday and with a rapidly approaching Jan. 23 deadline to decide on the event’s future for next season.

Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti also attended the discussion, albeit virtually, to give his requisite input. While it was not abnormal for him to abstain from attending such an in-person gathering of his peers, the dichotomy between those commissioners gathered in person and the one speaking from the opposite coast is an apt allegory for the current CFP expansion wrangling that could soon come to a head.

The ACC, Big 12 and SEC have generally coalesced around a move to 16 teams in the playoff with the existing five automatic qualifiers for the highest-ranked conference champions and 11 at-large bids.

Standing on the opposite end has been Petitti, whose league has been granted half of the actual decision-making power over the playoff alongside the SEC.

The Big Ten has favored a move to 24 teams and presented a formal proposal on the concept just last month, according to sources. It would do more than simply expand on the number of teams participating in the CFP and would likely lead to the elimination of conference title games in their current form, plus a much smaller role for the selection committee with an increased number of automatic bids based on league standings.

The former represents a slight tweak to the status quo. The latter is a wholesale reimagining of the sport after 12 regular-season games.

As the College Football Playoff begins in earnest Friday night between Alabama and Oklahoma, those two concepts are hovering in the background of the march toward Miami for the national championship.

While it is entirely possible that the current stalemate forces the CFP to remain at 12 teams and in its present form, there is growing agitation after the last two seasons to push the boundaries further. The question is, which faction will hold firm and which will come around amid mounting pressure from stakeholders?

“Is Tony [Petitti] going to compromise?” one power-conference athletic director says. “I think most of us are comfortable going [to 16] next year.”

Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who has a seat on the CFP management committee alongside the 10 FBS commissioners, has voiced similar support for the concept. Most of the Group of 6 leagues are on board with a move to 16 as well.

The holdup for much of the past 20 months has been the differing views between the SEC and Big Ten—and in particular their two commissioners. Whether there will be a resolution between the two before the larger CFP board of managers meets the Sunday before the national title game remains to be seen. There has been no shortage of prodding to move beyond the current setup of 12 teams for next year.

“My barometer over what’s enough and what’s not enough, is if you’re leaving teams out of the playoff that could win a national championship, then you don’t have the right number,” Phillips said in Vegas. “I think you have to at least look at 16, but you may need to look at a little bit more than that. That’s what we’re doing.

“That cut line needs to be closer to all those that really have a legitimate chance to be in the playoff have a chance to win it. And we don’t have that right now.”

Nor is there much contractually committed regarding the playoff’s future beyond this season, including no formal long-form contract with broadcast partner ESPN or anything similar with the bowl games involved in hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals.

All that is in place, for now, is a broad memorandum of understanding that the parties signed last spring prior to committing to a fresh media rights agreement. The deal hands the Big Ten and the SEC control over most aspects of the playoff but crucially only covers a future involving a 12- or 14-team playoff.

Given that nobody really appears happy with the status quo, if the decision is made to go to 16 or 24 teams in January then fresh terms need to be agreed upon. That is something that only moves forward if the SEC and Big Ten are in lockstep on what kind of move that is. They presently are not unified, given the Big Ten’s public and private opposition to the 16-team model.

There is also a very real spillover effect on the rest of the postseason. Much of the current bowl system has deals that expire after the conclusion of this season to line up with the playoff’s prior contract. Nearly everyone from conference offices to the bowl games themselves must wait until there’s a firmer resolution over the CFP.

“We can’t really do anything until they decide,” says a senior bowl executive. “It’s possible that there are some interim agreements that cover next season, but nobody really wants that.”

Unless Petitti & Co. decide to back off on doubling the field between now and mid-January, the sport will likely do nothing and remain with the same format from 2025.

Sankey, on his conference’s behalf, has stated that is an outcome they can live with for the time being. The ball, for all intents and purposes, is very much resting in the Big Ten’s court.