It’s hard to disagree with the notion of the Bengals having the best passing attack in the NFL. Joe Burrow threw for 4,918 yards last season, besting second-place Jared Goff by nearly 300 yards, and Ja’Marr Chase became the second wideout this century to win the receiving triple crown outright.
The wise choice would be to pencil in Burrow and Chase to once again be league leaders in most major passing and receiving statistical categories, respectively. However, it’s not that simple when Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are there to challenge Burrow. And don’t overlook Goff, Baker Mayfield and Jayden Daniels, three quarterbacks who also operate high-scoring offenses.
As for Chase, he may need to worry about some 2024 first-round picks who appear ready to make the jump to elite status, including Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. And don’t count out Marvin Harrison Jr., who could develop after a somewhat quiet rookie year. Or maybe it’ll be a tight end who leads the league in receptions and/or receiving yards. Brock Bowers was high on both lists last year.
Also, is this the year Bijan Robinson puts his otherworldly gifts together to lead the league in rushing yards? Let’s get to our 2025 NFL stats predictions.
Passing yards: Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
Last year, I made a big deal about Mayfield losing Dave Canales as his offensive play-caller and expected him to regress under Liam Coen. Boy, was I wrong. Mayfield topped his breakout 2023 season with an even better campaign, throwing for 4,500 yards. He’s now helped two offensive coordinators gain head-coaching jobs primarily because of his stellar play.
Mayfield has proven himself enough not to expect a drop-off with his new offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, who should help provide continuity after serving as Coen’s pass-game coordinator last year.
Additionally, Mayfield will be surrounded by a strong group of skill players, including Emeka Egbuka, a first-round rookie receiver from Ohio State, who received plenty of praise this summer from his teammates and beat reporters. Add in a full season of Bucky Irving being the lead back, and this passing attack should continue to feast downfield.
Passing TDs: Joe Burrow, Bengals
Remember when Burrow’s wrist injury was supposed to give him problems last year? Well, he had a sensational career season, including a league-high 43 touchdowns, two more than Mayfield and Jackson.
I’m rolling with Burrow for this category again, especially after the Bengals locked down Chase and Tee Higgins with massive contract extensions. Cincinnati will need Burrow to be as good as he was last year, as the team did very little to improve its defense in the offseason.
Even with edge rusher Trey Hendrickson committed to play this season after a contract revision and pay bump, the Bengals are probably going to need to average at least 30 points per game—after ranking sixth last year with 27.8 points per game—to snag a playoff spot.
Rushing yards: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
The entire football public is banking on a breakout Year 3 from Robinson. He’s being drafted No. 1 in many fantasy football leagues and was recently named by Saquon Barkley as the most talented running back in the league. Now that’s high praise from a running back who just rushed for more than 2,000 yards.
It’s wild how some believe Robinson hasn’t played up to expectations because he hasn’t led the league in rushing yards the past two seasons. Sure, he was a distant third behind Barkley and Derrick Henry last year. Still, his numbers were excellent, rushing for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Robinson made a sizable jump from his 976 yards as a rookie and should continue to trend upward in his third season with Michael Penix Jr. as the full-time starting quarterback in Atlanta. There’s also familiarity heading into his second season with coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
Rushing TDs: Omarion Hampton, Chargers
I’m going to roll the dice here with a rookie running back, but we can at least count on coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman to run the football at a frequent rate and not mess around near the goal line.
The Chargers didn’t spend a first-round pick on Hampton to have him split snaps with Najee Harris, who’s playing catch-up after missing all of training camp due to a fireworks mishap on the Fourth of July. I do have concerns about the Chargers losing left tackle Rashawn Slater, but the presence of Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey will prevent defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage.
Look for the Chargers to feed Hampton often, especially near the goal line.
Receptions: Malik Nabers, Giants
Nabers had a sensational rookie year despite catching passes from Daniel Jones, Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito. With an improved quarterback room, Nabers should have an even better Year 2, even if the Giants split games with Russell Wilson and rookie Jaxson Dart.
Coach Brian Daboll has no issues force-feeding Nabers, who saw 170 targets last year as a rookie, the second most in the league behind Chase’s 175 targets. Overall, Nabers finished with 109 receptions, 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns.
Receiving yards: Nabers
Again, this goes back to the high volume of targets likely headed to Nabers’s neighborhood (feel free to steal that for your fantasy football team name) this season.
There’s also the possibility of Nabers’s teammates making life easier for him on the field, especially if the Giants get a complete season from left tackle Andrew Thomas, who only played in six games last year. The team should benefit from a boost in the running game with rookie Cam Skattebo partnering with Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Receiving TDs: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
It’s not far-fetched to say Thomas could soon be just as dangerous as Chase and Tyreek Hill when it comes to being downfield threats.
Defensive backs struggled to stay in front of Thomas as a rookie, even though he was the apparent focal point of the Jaguars’ offense last year. Thomas recorded 87 receptions for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 14.7 yards per catch.
Now, Thomas could see a lot more opportunities for lengthy touchdowns with Travis Hunter’s arrival in Jacksonville. Perhaps I should be concerned about Hunter taking some of those touchdowns away from Thomas, but the latter receiver has the advantage in experience and chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. Also, Hunter could have plenty on his plate if the team decides to utilize him often on the defensive side.
Scoring: Cameron Dicker, Chargers
Last year, kicker Chris Boswell scored a league-high 158 points despite playing with a subpar Steelers’ offense that averaged only 22.4 points per game.
I don’t foresee the Chargers needing Dicker as much as the Steelers leaned on Boswell last year to cap promising drives that often stalled in enemy territory. Still, the Chargers should have a better offense in Year 2 with Harbaugh, possibly leading to a good mix of field goals and extra-point kicks from Dicker, who scored 150 points last season.
Sacks: Will Anderson Jr., Texans
Anderson showed flashes in his second season of becoming a dominant game-wrecker, perhaps as good as T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett.
Let’s not overlook the fact that Anderson has Danielle Hunter as a running mate, creating more one-on-one opportunities for the 2023 No. 3 pick. Last year, Anderson went from seven sacks to 11. He’ll need a sizable jump in that category because Hendrickson led the league with 17.5 sacks last year.
With everything Anderson has shown in his first two seasons, he’s undoubtedly capable of racking up sacks, playing with a deep defensive front that defensive mastermind DeMeco Ryans leads.
Interceptions: Nate Wiggins, Ravens
My boldest prediction, but this secondary has vastly improved from last season with the additions of Jaire Alexander and Malaki Starks. Throw in the possibility of opposing teams needing to stay aggressive to keep pace with Lamar Jackson & Co., and there will be plenty of opportunities for this secondary to create takeaways.
Teams may stay away from Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton, now the highest-paid safety in the NFL, leaving Wiggins, the 2024 first-round pick, to fend for himself often in his second season. Ravens beat reporters have dubbed him the most likely player to have a breakout season in Baltimore. Wiggins had an up-and-down rookie year with only one interception, but many have taken notice of his improvements.
Tackles: Fred Warner, 49ers
The 49ers overhauled their defensive roster, saying goodbye to several experienced starters this offseason. Warner could be asked to clean up many mistakes early in the season as the rookies on the defensive front get acclimated to the speed of the league.
Warner has had at least 125 total tackles in each of the past five seasons. Last year, Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin had a league-high 173 total tackles.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Predicting 2025 NFL Stat Leaders: Watch Out for Malik Nabers, Omarion Hampton, More.